Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4693 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4693 ORF 06:00 → LGA 07:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 4358 ORF 15:22 → LGA 16:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4693 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 06:00	LGA 07:29	10%	5%	3.2%	86%
AA 4621 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 11:52	LGA 13:37	26%	11%	1.9%	68%
AA 4358 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 15:22	LGA 16:58	33%	14%	2.1%	73%
DL 5334 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 06:04	LGA 07:30	17%	8%	4.9%	83%
DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 10:20	LGA 11:55	25%	16%	7.0%	75%
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 14:44	LGA 16:21	39%	19%	17.8%	61%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 19:21	LGA 20:56	63%	24%	19.2%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON