tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3305 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3305 Southwest ORF 05:46 MCO 07:53 2% 1% 0.6% no record
F9 3783 Frontier Flight history → ORF 19:43 MCO 21:56 25% 10% 2.2% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213 4h 41m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 40m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 38m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379 5h 03m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 6h 34m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 2h 40m Detroit DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08DL 1747 7h 03m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130 1h 35m Charlotte CLT 08:24 → MCO 10:09AA 2170 4h 45m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → MCO 12:34AA 1576 5h 48m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:00 → JFK 08:20DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor 3h 07m New York JFK 11:27 → MCO 14:17DL 2775 7h 17m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 17:41 → DCA 18:46AA 5601 · flown by PSA 1h 21m Washington DCA 20:07 → MCO 22:36AA 2139 4h 55m 72% 55%
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:42 → CLT 17:08AA 2200 57m Charlotte CLT 18:05 → MCO 20:01AA 612 4h 19m 74% 54%
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:31 → PHL 16:50AA 5859 · flown by Piedmont 1h 02m Philadelphia PHL 17:52 → MCO 20:24AA 646 4h 53m 63% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON