tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 756 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 756 American Flight history → ORF 06:00 MIA 08:24 9% 3% 1.2% 90%
MQ 3799 Envoy ORF 17:04 MIA 19:29 35% 11% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 38m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 42m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 42m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 23m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA 2h 57m Washington DCA 09:56 → MIA 12:46AA 401 6h 46m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 09:02 → MIA 11:08AA 3184 5h 44m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 25m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 7h 31m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON