Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3668 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 3668 ORF 06:19 → ORD 07:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1251 ORF 16:59 → ORD 18:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3668 Republic	ORF 06:19	ORD 07:44	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 4528 Republic	ORF 06:40	ORD 08:05	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 4448 Republic	ORF 12:10	ORD 13:35	19%	5%	1.7%	no record
YX 3674 Republic	ORF 13:07	ORD 14:41	22%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORF 18:46	ORD 20:32	29%	8%	1.8%	72%
UA 1251 United	ORF 16:59	ORD 18:19	31%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON