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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 08:12 → SJU 11:52DL 1930 6h 37m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 12m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 27m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 29m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 39m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → MIA 08:24AA 756 3h 03m Miami MIA 11:27 → SJU 14:21AA 1613 8h 21m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 04m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 2h 03m Philadelphia PHL 09:43 → SJU 13:56AA 614 7h 33m 96% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON