Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 484 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 484 MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3698 MCO 17:51 → LAX 20:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 484 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:28	LAX 08:35	6%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 504 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAX 11:49	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 325 United	MCO 09:00	LAX 11:19	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1928 American Flight history →	MCO 07:12	LAX 09:25	12%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 1316 United	MCO 15:13	LAX 17:26	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1051 Delta	MCO 17:18	LAX 19:33	15%	7%	3.8%	no record
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:43	LAX 18:10	17%	8%	1.5%	80%
DL 644 Delta	MCO 19:05	LAX 21:19	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 3698 Southwest	MCO 17:51	LAX 20:00	27%	8%	5.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	98%	87%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 18m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 30m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON