Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 34 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1309 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–55%.

Safest bet that day UA 1309 MCO 05:57 → EWR 08:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 798 MCO 19:12 → LGA 21:59 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 05:57	EWR 08:48	3%	2%	1.1%	96%
DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	3%	1%	0.9%	93%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	4%	2%	0.8%	88%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	5%	2%	1.1%	95%
DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	7%	2%	1.1%	91%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:44	7%	2%	1.2%	53%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	9%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	12%	4%	0.8%	82%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:33	EWR 13:24	14%	7%	1.0%	no record
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:47	JFK 12:30	14%	5%	0.9%	68%
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:49	EWR 12:40	14%	5%	1.2%	81%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	15%	8%	1.2%	74%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	17%	5%	1.1%	84%
UA 254 United	MCO 11:44	EWR 14:36	20%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 3038 American	MCO 11:04	LGA 13:57	20%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:56	EWR 15:47	22%	13%	1.0%	no record
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:59	JFK 22:43	23%	10%	1.7%	56%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	24%	9%	1.6%	72%
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:55	LGA 16:40	24%	8%	1.0%	76%
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:04	LGA 22:48	27%	10%	1.3%	no record
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	JFK 17:44	29%	13%	1.1%	79%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	29%	15%	0.9%	74%
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:53	JFK 21:40	31%	12%	3.1%	91%worse than usual
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:23	LGA 15:11	31%	14%	1.1%	78%
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:04	EWR 18:57	34%	15%	1.5%	63%
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:33	EWR 20:24	35%	14%	5.3%	71%
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:11	EWR 21:02	36%	13%	2.5%	no record
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:05	JFK 18:54	36%	14%	3.4%	56%
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:20	EWR 22:12	37%	13%	1.9%	no record
AA 902 American Flight history →	MCO 18:09	LGA 21:01	41%	13%	3.6%	41%
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:29	LGA 17:17	42%	17%	1.1%	73%worse than usual
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	48%	21%	6.9%	60%
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:18	EWR 22:07	52%	20%	2.8%	53%
B6 798 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LGA 21:59	55%	23%	2.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON