Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2728 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2728 MCO 06:21 → BWI 08:51 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2728 Southwest	MCO 06:21	BWI 08:51	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2691 Southwest	MCO 07:36	BWI 10:06	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
WN 2693 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:51	BWI 11:22	5%	2%	0.8%	67%
UA 2746 United	MCO 08:55	IAD 11:30	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 142 Southwest	MCO 10:16	BWI 12:46	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4283 Southwest	MCO 09:11	DCA 11:30	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	8%	3%	1.3%	89%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	10%	3%	0.8%	83%
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	10%	5%	0.9%	86%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:48	IAD 15:23	11%	5%	0.6%	83%
WN 2168 Southwest	MCO 13:09	BWI 15:40	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:12	IAD 10:49	12%	4%	0.9%	77%
WN 4567 Southwest	MCO 14:09	BWI 16:39	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 390 United	MCO 18:23	IAD 20:58	16%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:39	DCA 14:04	16%	7%	0.8%	75%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	17%	6%	1.3%	70%
F9 3664 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:09	BWI 17:52	18%	9%	2.0%	76%
WN 1079 Southwest	MCO 18:49	BWI 21:21	20%	5%	2.4%	no record
WN 967 Southwest	MCO 19:59	BWI 22:31	20%	7%	3.2%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	20%	9%	1.1%	67%
AA 1071 American	MCO 14:15	DCA 16:41	21%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 2310 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:28	BWI 21:09	21%	9%	3.7%	67%
WN 204 Southwest	MCO 13:46	DCA 16:04	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1614 American	MCO 17:22	DCA 19:59	25%	11%	8.0%	no record
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	25%	13%	0.9%	59%
WN 2475 Southwest	MCO 19:56	DCA 22:17	29%	10%	2.9%	no record
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	38%	18%	9.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON