tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 54 at 06:59, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 54 Alaska PDX 06:59 ABQ 10:39 5% 2% 0.9% no record
AS 2268 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 07:01 ABQ 10:57 6% 1% 0.3% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 44m Denver DEN 11:15 → ABQ 12:46UA 476 6h 46m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:03 → ABQ 13:53AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 7h 46m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 57m Phoenix PHX 08:57 → ABQ 11:22AA 1352 5h 02m 92% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 17m Denver DEN 13:41 → ABQ 15:10UA 1594 5h 20m 95% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 2h 33m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 6h 34m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → ABQ 15:40UA 1597 7h 40m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON