Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 662 PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 784 PDX 07:30 → ATL 15:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 662 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:35	ATL 14:14	6%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	PDX 14:08	ATL 21:59	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 539 Delta Flight history →	PDX 11:37	ATL 19:21	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
AS 784 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:30	ATL 15:15	14%	3%	0.6%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 54m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 37m	93%	82%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 02m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 40m	93%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON