tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 540 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 AUS 16:38 17% 4% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55DL 3950 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 08:29 → AUS 14:03UA 1107 6h 48m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 34m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 14:31 → AUS 17:17DL 2687 9h 17m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 1h 12m Phoenix PHX 09:12 → AUS 13:38AA 1059 6h 18m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 44m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 58m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON