Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1376 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	BNA 17:00	19%	4%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724	6h 25m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 52m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	8h 07m	98%	87%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:51 → BNA 13:41UA 355	6h 41m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:25 → LAX 15:47DL 2766	2h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 18:31 → BNA 00:33 +1DL 858	9h 08m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	7h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 01m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → BNA 18:05DL 758	9h 30m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON