Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 358 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	BOS 15:30	14%	6%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 12m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 51m	99%	82%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 08:10 → BOS 17:04UA 2647	8h 49m	97%	81%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 09m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 44m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest	54m Seattle	SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00DL 459	7h 30m	91%	78%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 50m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	2h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 15:20 → BOS 23:51DL 2166	9h 58m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → BOS 00:14 +1DL 474	9h 59m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon	53m Seattle	SEA 15:36 → BOS 23:59AS 460	7h 11m	50%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON