tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 393 at 10:33, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 393 Alaska PDX 10:33 BZN 13:12 7% 3% 1.2% no record
AS 2022 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 10:30 BZN 13:10 10% 2% 0.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 32m 99% 92%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 1h 13m Seattle SEA 07:06 → BZN 09:46AS 2141 · flown by Horizon 3h 46m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 5h 43m 95% 84%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:19 → SEA 08:20AS 2420 · flown by Horizon 3h 28m Seattle SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277 6h 05m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 7h 21m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577 1h 33m San Diego SAN 11:38 → BZN 15:24AS 2221 · flown by Horizon 6h 52m 99% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON