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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 07:12 → CLT 10:39DL 1912 7h 06m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 07m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139 7h 20m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 8h 44m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231 7h 18m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → CLT 17:24AA 665 9h 04m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:18 → PHL 15:42AA 3090 3h 26m Philadelphia PHL 19:08 → CLT 21:09AA 2189 10h 51m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → PDX 06:02 → ORD 12:09AA 3329 1h 12m Chicago ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:20AA 1409 7h 18m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON