tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 10 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:54 DCA 16:00 15% 4% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 47m Minneapolis MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958 7h 27m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678 8h 32m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 50m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 23m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 9h 09m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 59m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 59m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462 3h 25m Houston IAH 16:55 → DCA 21:18UA 235 11h 05m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 9h 02m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → DCA 18:57AA 2520 10h 50m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306 47m Chicago ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314 7h 12m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON