Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1870 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1870 PDX 06:21 → DEN 09:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1346 PDX 14:47 → DEN 18:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1870 Southwest	PDX 06:21	DEN 09:55	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 459 United Flight history →	PDX 05:00	DEN 08:31	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 2375 United Flight history →	PDX 08:50	DEN 12:24	7%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 4501 Southwest	PDX 07:41	DEN 11:15	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1429 United	PDX 10:45	DEN 14:25	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	PDX 12:50	DEN 16:28	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:01	DEN 10:31	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	PDX 16:15	DEN 19:51	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 3313 Southwest	PDX 12:54	DEN 16:27	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 1790 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:20	DEN 16:03	15%	5%	0.7%	82%
WN 3314 Southwest	PDX 14:37	DEN 18:13	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 1346 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:47	DEN 18:16	28%	4%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON