Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 982 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 982 PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2655 PDX 11:56 → DFW 17:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 982 American Flight history →	PDX 05:07	DFW 10:57	8%	3%	1.0%	83%
AA 371 American Flight history →	PDX 06:54	DFW 12:49	10%	4%	0.9%	85%
AS 376 Alaska	PDX 07:18	DFW 13:08	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1132 American	PDX 07:55	DFW 13:50	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 392 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	DFW 16:42	15%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	PDX 14:21	DFW 20:15	22%	8%	0.9%	74%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PDX 11:56	DFW 17:50	23%	8%	0.9%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	5h 45m	99%	88%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 04m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DFW 12:39UA 1350	5h 39m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON