Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 07:19, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1327 Delta	PDX 12:00	DTW 19:12	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	8h 09m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 39m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	6h 27m	99%	89%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 04m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	6h 27m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:28 → DTW 23:59DL 2255	7h 44m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	10h 38m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	6h 30m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → DTW 21:49DL 533	9h 17m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON