Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 294 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day AS 294 PDX 07:40 → EWR 16:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1701 PDX 10:59 → EWR 19:01 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 294 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:40	EWR 16:05	14%	6%	0.9%	83%
AS 642 Alaska	PDX 14:56	EWR 22:54	29%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1701 United	PDX 10:59	EWR 19:01	32%	11%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 16m	98%	90%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:19 → SEA 08:20AS 2420 · flown by Horizon	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → EWR 17:41AS 292	7h 22m	100%	65%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	1h 34m Seattle	SEA 08:51 → EWR 16:46AS 295	7h 27m	99%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON