Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Anchorage, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775	2h 06m Anchorage	ANC 15:28 → FAI 16:31AS 2103 · flown by Horizon	7h 01m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 09:50 → FAI 12:41AS 381	7h 22m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:19 → SEA 08:20AS 2420 · flown by Horizon	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 12:05 → FAI 14:55AS 230	8h 36m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON