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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Fresno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:35 → FAT 17:01UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 8h 11m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 36m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → FAT 12:36AA 2396 7h 16m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 09:12 → SAN 11:40AS 721 2h 44m San Diego SAN 14:24 → FAT 15:52AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 6h 40m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:19 → SEA 09:14AS 2108 · flown by Horizon 3h 41m Seattle SEA 12:55 → FAT 15:01AS 383 6h 42m 98% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:03 → SFO 15:19UA 751 51m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → FAT 17:28UA 5652 · flown by SkyWest 4h 25m 70% 50%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:46 → SAN 13:27AS 1394 57m San Diego SAN 14:24 → FAT 15:52AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON