Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 840 at 17:40 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day AS 840 PDX 17:40 → HNL 20:36 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 813 PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 840 Alaska	PDX 17:40	HNL 20:36	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
AS 962 Alaska	PDX 08:07	HNL 10:58	31%	7%	2.1%	no record
AS 813 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	HNL 13:28	36%	8%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON