Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2016 United Flight history →	PDX 08:21	IAD 16:20	10%	2%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 13m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	9h 04m	100%	87%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 55m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	9h 58m	99%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 08:11 → IAD 16:30UA 599	8h 15m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	8h 55m	99%	83%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306	3h 47m Chicago	ORD 17:00 → IAD 20:06UA 3751	10h 06m	99%	82%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	3h 16m Denver	DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421	9h 21m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 14m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PDX 11:56 → DFW 17:50AA 2655	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:46 → IAD 22:54AA 2254	7h 58m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON