Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3044 at 10:33, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3044 SkyWest	PDX 10:33	IDA 13:22	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → IDA 12:19DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	100%	94%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 14m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	7h 25m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest	4h 03m	92%	86%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:19 → SEA 09:14AS 2108 · flown by Horizon	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 12:34 → IDA 15:30AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON