Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 451 Delta Flight history →	PDX 07:05	JFK 15:46	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
AS 18 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:47	JFK 19:23	21%	6%	0.8%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 06m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	8h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 16:06 → JFK 00:03 +1DL 1044	9h 48m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	2h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 40m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	2h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 15:30 → JFK 23:41DL 991	9h 48m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00DL 2947	2h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → JFK 20:02DL 972	10h 32m	99%	79%
American Details →	PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:42AA 6290 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Los Angeles	LAX 13:00 → JFK 21:34AA 4	11h 34m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:46 → SAN 13:27AS 1394	48m San Diego	SAN 14:15 → JFK 22:56AS 36	9h 10m	42%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON