Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 834 Alaska	PDX 08:14	KOA 11:23	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721	8h 25m	97%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 44m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	13h 37m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	3h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	11h 24m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	11h 03m	99%	82%
American Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658	2h 40m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	11h 46m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577	1h 37m San Diego	SAN 11:42 → KOA 14:27AS 222	9h 55m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02AS 518	9h 43m	99%	78%
American Details →	PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:42AA 6290 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10AA 59	12h 10m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON