Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1701 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1701 PDX 05:11 → LAS 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 778 PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1701 Southwest	PDX 05:11	LAS 07:25	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 627 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:37	LAS 09:55	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 1403 Alaska	PDX 09:02	LAS 11:11	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 757 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAS 13:11	15%	4%	0.7%	85%
WN 4707 Southwest	PDX 11:01	LAS 13:16	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 1106 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:17	LAS 14:40	19%	7%	2.0%	71%
AS 778 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:46	LAS 17:06	20%	6%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON