tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 973 at 08:17, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 973 Alaska PDX 08:17 LIH 11:27 16% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 51m San Francisco SFO 08:52 → LIH 11:52UA 1111 9h 37m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 43m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 12h 16m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 1h 27m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 48m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:03 → SFO 15:19UA 751 1h 36m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 9h 39m 90% 72%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:11 → SEA 09:14AS 2190 · flown by Horizon 2h 14m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 9h 29m 100% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON