Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 490 at 07:01, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 490 Alaska	PDX 07:01	MCI 12:25	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	6h 12m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613	7h 14m	100%	89%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159	5h 30m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → MCI 08:33DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	6h 00m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	7h 55m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903	5h 20m	94%	81%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 16m Denver	DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586	5h 32m	95%	81%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 08:08 → MCI 13:31AS 501	6h 31m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	51m Seattle	SEA 08:08 → MCI 13:31AS 501	5h 12m	75%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON