tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 300 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:00 MCO 15:49 12% 3% 1.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 3h 38m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 10h 07m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 8h 04m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 51m San Francisco SFO 08:52 → MCO 17:28UA 583 9h 13m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 39m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032 7h 28m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462 3h 39m Houston IAH 17:09 → MCO 20:48UA 1571 10h 35m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 2h 47m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 10h 14m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 24m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 49m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON