Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2146 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:55	MSO 13:24	7%	2%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 38m	99%	88%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	2h 57m Denver	DEN 11:28 → MSO 13:38UA 2357	7h 38m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:19 → SEA 09:14AS 2108 · flown by Horizon	3h 31m Seattle	SEA 12:45 → MSO 15:07AS 660	5h 48m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon	4h 31m	100%	70%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest	7h 38m	99%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON