tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 353 Alaska Flight history → PDX 14:44 OGG 17:25 18% 3% 0.6% 89%
AS 479 Alaska PDX 07:10 OGG 09:56 19% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 41m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 30m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 12h 12m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 23m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:03 → SFO 15:19UA 751 1h 21m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 9h 14m 86% 71%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 1h 13m Seattle SEA 08:30 → OGG 11:35AS 245 8h 16m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 34m 78% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:11 → SEA 09:14AS 2190 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Seattle SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929 8h 08m 70% 46%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 1h 07m Honolulu HNL 14:35 → OGG 15:25AS 1136 7h 55m 73% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON