Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 1704 at 14:48, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1704 Alaska	PDX 14:48	ONT 17:10	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 2093 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:30	ONT 16:52	8%	2%	0.0%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	6h 27m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	7h 49m	99%	85%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	2h 54m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	7h 47m	98%	85%
American Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661	7h 09m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 08:33 → ONT 11:14AS 1364	6h 14m	100%	81%
American Details →	PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635	8h 35m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → ONT 11:17DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	5h 47m	94%	80%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	1h 42m Boise	BOI 14:31 → ONT 15:38AS 2025 · flown by Horizon	5h 08m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON