Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3329 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3329 PDX 06:02 → ORD 12:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1713 PDX 11:59 → ORD 18:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3329 American Flight history →	PDX 06:02	ORD 12:09	9%	4%	1.0%	89%
UA 2306 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	10%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 2822 United	PDX 08:26	ORD 14:27	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 324 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	18%	5%	1.1%	74%
UA 1923 United	PDX 10:45	ORD 16:50	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2266 United	PDX 14:27	ORD 20:33	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1713 American	PDX 11:59	ORD 18:20	24%	9%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544	5h 57m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON