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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1776 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:17 PHL 15:23 12% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 3090 American Flight history → PDX 07:18 PHL 15:42 12% 4% 0.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688 7h 11m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 8h 54m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 9h 04m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 55m San Francisco SFO 08:56 → PHL 17:22UA 2824 9h 07m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575 7h 12m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 8h 37m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174 7h 56m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 25m Denver DEN 13:49 → PHL 19:32UA 2787 7h 42m 95% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON