Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 595 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 595 PDX 05:02 → PHX 07:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2986 PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 595 Southwest	PDX 05:02	PHX 07:44	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3323 Southwest	PDX 08:51	PHX 11:32	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2658 American Flight history →	PDX 05:20	PHX 08:00	7%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 1349 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	PHX 09:49	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 711 Alaska	PDX 10:30	PHX 13:05	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 716 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:45	PHX 17:34	18%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 3324 Southwest	PDX 16:21	PHX 19:01	20%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 1625 American	PDX 17:56	PHX 20:40	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2986 American Flight history →	PDX 15:31	PHX 18:12	26%	8%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON