tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3431 at 08:24, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3431 SkyWest PDX 08:24 PSP 10:58 10% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 5h 56m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 08:29 → PSP 10:09UA 717 4h 54m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:13 → PSP 12:31UA 687 7h 31m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 38m Phoenix PHX 10:38 → PSP 11:58AA 1884 6h 38m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 3h 44m San Francisco SFO 12:40 → PSP 14:20UA 342 7h 20m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 2h 48m Seattle SEA 10:05 → PSP 12:40AS 1494 6h 21m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → PDX 11:56 → DFW 17:50AA 2655 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:35 → PSP 20:36AA 2709 8h 40m 91% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON