Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3284 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3284 PDX 08:01 → SAN 10:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1312 PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3284 Southwest	PDX 08:01	SAN 10:33	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 721 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:12	SAN 11:40	22%	6%	0.7%	80%
WN 3155 Southwest	PDX 16:11	SAN 18:44	23%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 577 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:32	SAN 10:05	23%	5%	0.7%	80%
AS 425 Alaska	PDX 15:02	SAN 17:30	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 667 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:34	SAN 20:01	25%	6%	0.7%	78%
AS 1394 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:46	SAN 13:27	26%	5%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 1312 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:55	SAN 17:29	28%	6%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON