Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1896 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1896 PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 1412 PDX 10:36 → SFO 12:24 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1896 United Flight history →	PDX 05:15	SFO 07:01	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2818 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SFO 08:56	17%	8%	0.6%	35%
OO 5733 SkyWest	PDX 10:55	SFO 12:53	20%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 236 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:49	SFO 16:40	20%	8%	0.6%	73%
UA 1145 United	PDX 15:23	SFO 17:19	21%	13%	0.6%	no record
UA 751 United Flight history →	PDX 13:03	SFO 15:19	22%	12%	0.6%	43%
AS 526 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:19	SFO 09:16	22%	10%	0.6%	59%
UA 1939 United	PDX 09:00	SFO 10:57	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 1412 Alaska	PDX 10:36	SFO 12:24	29%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 2112 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:45	SFO 23:36	36%	11%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON