Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3328 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 3328 PDX 05:31 → SJC 07:29 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 694 PDX 11:52 → SJC 13:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3328 Southwest	PDX 05:31	SJC 07:29	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3001 SkyWest	PDX 17:35	SJC 19:36	6%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3329 Southwest	PDX 12:11	SJC 14:08	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 694 Alaska	PDX 11:52	SJC 13:42	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2080 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:15	SJC 09:09	4%	2%	3.8%	96%
AS 2113 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:40	SJC 19:32	19%	3%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON