Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3331 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3331 PDX 05:51 → SMF 07:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1717 PDX 14:56 → SMF 16:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3331 Southwest	PDX 05:51	SMF 07:33	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 1709 Alaska	PDX 09:18	SMF 10:54	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4355 Southwest	PDX 10:16	SMF 11:58	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 1307 Alaska	PDX 14:31	SMF 16:06	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1717 Southwest	PDX 14:56	SMF 16:38	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 2399 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 11:00	SMF 12:33	9%	1%	0.6%	91%
AS 2405 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:32	SMF 16:06	12%	0%	1.9%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON