Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 1318 at 11:12, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1318 Alaska	PDX 11:12	STL 16:59	18%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → STL 10:43DL 1289	8h 10m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	5h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	3h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	8h 50m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	9h 18m	99%	83%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 04m Denver	DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652	5h 42m	96%	83%
American Details →	PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982	3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → STL 16:38AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	9h 31m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492	7h 15m	99%	82%
United Details →	PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462	2h 01m Houston	IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa	8h 29m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON