Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2142 PHL 13:59 → BGR 15:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5134 PHL 16:46 → BGR 18:31 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2142 American	PHL 13:59	BGR 15:48	19%	6%	1.1%	no record
OH 5134 PSA	PHL 16:46	BGR 18:31	22%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 6123 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:55	BGR 10:51	10%	3%	0.0%	90%
AA 6038 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 14:30	BGR 16:24	28%	10%	5.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON