Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5054 PSA	PHL 11:02	BHM 12:16	21%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 5357 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:08	BHM 21:23	22%	9%	1.0%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 55m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	4h 32m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 19m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	6h 26m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 20m	98%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 08:59 → BHM 09:23AA 5043 · flown by PSA	4h 23m	95%	84%
American Details →	PHL 05:01 → DFW 07:25AA 1751	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → BHM 11:33AA 5530 · flown by PSA	7h 32m	100%	84%
American Details →	PHL 15:52 → CLT 17:35AA 3012	2h 24m Charlotte	CLT 19:59 → BHM 20:23AA 5205 · flown by PSA	5h 31m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 19:11 → ORD 20:33UA 2665	57m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:34UA 4447 · flown by GoJet	5h 23m	71%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON