Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4858 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4858 PHL 05:56 → BNA 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1989 PHL 19:39 → BNA 20:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4858 Southwest	PHL 05:56	BNA 07:00	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
AA 1320 American	PHL 09:47	BNA 11:09	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 2755 Southwest	PHL 12:21	BNA 13:26	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5358 PSA	PHL 07:03	BNA 08:06	16%	6%	2.3%	no record
AA 2277 American Flight history →	PHL 21:30	BNA 22:46	17%	6%	0.9%	62%
AA 804 American	PHL 13:23	BNA 14:34	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
OH 5340 PSA	PHL 17:54	BNA 19:10	23%	7%	2.0%	no record
AA 1280 American Flight history →	PHL 15:46	BNA 16:58	23%	8%	0.8%	74%
WN 3334 Southwest	PHL 20:16	BNA 21:21	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 1989 Frontier	PHL 19:39	BNA 20:54	31%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON