Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5740 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 5740 PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3073 PHL 15:21 → BOS 16:47 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5740 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 06:00	BOS 07:30	6%	2%	1.2%	92%
B6 160 JetBlue	PHL 06:00	BOS 07:24	10%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2743 American	PHL 07:05	BOS 08:32	11%	5%	2.6%	no record
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 09:30	BOS 10:58	12%	3%	1.1%	90%
AA 1416 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	BOS 12:03	13%	6%	1.0%	84%
AA 2685 American	PHL 08:53	BOS 10:20	16%	5%	2.6%	no record
B6 1160 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 10:48	BOS 12:12	17%	7%	1.0%	85%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 13:10	BOS 14:40	19%	8%	0.8%	72%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 19:55	BOS 21:49	20%	6%	0.9%	70%
YX 4725 Republic	PHL 18:36	BOS 20:03	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3186 American	PHL 12:51	BOS 14:17	23%	10%	1.0%	no record
YX 4708 Republic	PHL 16:30	BOS 17:57	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 17:35	BOS 19:07	25%	7%	0.8%	67%
AA 2404 American	PHL 20:11	BOS 21:38	27%	10%	0.8%	no record
B6 560 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 18:43	BOS 20:07	31%	15%	0.9%	56%
AA 1147 American Flight history →	PHL 17:31	BOS 18:58	32%	12%	0.9%	51%
B6 1860 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 15:52	BOS 17:16	32%	18%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
AA 3073 American Flight history →	PHL 15:21	BOS 16:47	33%	14%	1.0%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON