Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5925 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:44	BUF 10:18	6%	4%	1.4%	94%
AA 5911 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 22:20	BUF 23:53	18%	7%	4.4%	82%
AA 6041 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 12:50	BUF 14:19	23%	11%	1.4%	77%
AA 6114 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:40	BUF 19:12	42%	15%	6.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON