tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6094 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record PHL 10:00 CAE 12:06 10% 3% 0.0% 90%
AA 6044 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record PHL 15:30 CAE 17:36 23% 10% 1.4% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → CAE 11:14DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor 6h 01m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:11 → CAE 12:20AA 5994 · flown by Piedmont 6h 20m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944 6h 34m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:05 → CAE 15:06DL 3193 7h 01m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 20:07 → CAE 21:15DL 3008 6h 43m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:33 → CAE 18:41DL 2193 6h 39m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095 2h 52m Chicago ORD 13:30 → CAE 16:38AA 4275 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:39 → CLT 12:21AA 847 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 14:40 → CAE 15:45AA 6046 · flown by Piedmont 5h 06m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → CAE 22:16AA 3260 7h 16m 73% 51%
UnitedDetails → PHL 11:38 → ORD 13:06UA 2207 49m Chicago ORD 13:55 → CAE 17:05UA 4523 · flown by GoJet 5h 27m 66% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON