Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3139 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 3139 PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4353 PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:46 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3139 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	CLT 07:53	6%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 847 American Flight history →	PHL 10:39	CLT 12:21	13%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 793 American Flight history →	PHL 13:49	CLT 15:45	14%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 1859 American Flight history →	PHL 12:17	CLT 14:02	15%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 2767 American	PHL 08:30	CLT 10:11	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
F9 2387 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:00	CLT 09:56	18%	7%	1.7%	80%
AA 2189 American	PHL 19:08	CLT 21:09	19%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 3012 American Flight history →	PHL 15:52	CLT 17:35	20%	7%	0.8%	81%
AA 2074 American	PHL 16:59	CLT 18:42	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 4353 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:46	28%	12%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON